Computers are programmed by human beings. As such, the answers they provide are only as good as their programming.
In the film, Pavel is a good programmer. As far as we know, the information he puts into the computer program was solid. Pavel's dad not only re-checked the data, but he also went out onto the lake himself to make sure with his own eyes. In other words, he did his due diligence, and he wasn't blinding accepting that the computer was right or that the lake was safe. And the lake actually was safe, at least the night before the accident.
We never learn why the ice cracks. We know that it should have held 3 times Pavel's weight, but we're not 100% sure how many people were on the lake at the same time the day of the accident, or if Pavel and his dad added the necessary data to take into complete account the fact that the stream entered the lake. Although Pavel's dad warned his son not to get too close to where the stream entered the lake, maybe the "current" under the ice, or some unaccounted-for piece of data, is the explanation for what happened. Just human error.
When you watch Dekalog I, it's not clear what will go wrong for about the first half of the film. The second half of the film is when it all plays out. Slowly. There are built-in "hope spots" where you think: Okay, this other kid wasn't skating at the lake and he finally turned up. Maybe Pavel will too. We want him to turn up, of course, but with each passing scene, the odds of him doing so feel less and less likely. It's a Grave of the Fireflies movie -- so well done, but so difficult to watch, and not really a movie that you want to watch again and again, although you watch it once and it sticks with, maybe more than any of the other Dekalog films... this is certainly the one that I remember most vividly.

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